The changing epidemiology of human monkeypox-A potential threat? A systematic review

Monkeypox, a zoonotic disease caused by an orthopoxvirus, results in a smallpox-like disease in humans. Since monkeypox in humans was initially diagnosed in 1970 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), it has spread to other regions of Africa (primarily West and Central), and cases outside Africa have emerged in recent years. We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed and grey literature on how monkeypox epidemiology has evolved, with particular emphasis on the number of confirmed, probable, and/or possible cases, age at presentation, mortality, and geographical spread. The review is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020208269). We identified 48 peer-reviewed articles and 18 grey literature sources for data extraction.
The number of human monkeypox cases has been on the rise since the 1970s, with the most dramatic increases occurring in the DRC. The median age at presentation has increased from 4 (1970s) to 21 years (2010-2019). There was an overall case fatality rate of 8.7%, with a significant difference between clades-Central African 10.6% (95% CI: 8.4%- 13.3%) vs. West African 3.6% (95% CI: 1.7%- 6.8%). Since 2003, import- and travel-related spread outside of Africa has occasionally resulted in outbreaks. Interactions/activities with infected animals or individuals are risk behaviors associated with acquiring monkeypox.
Our review shows an escalation of monkeypox cases, especially in the highly endemic DRC, a spread to other countries, and a growing median age from young children to young adults. These findings may be related to the cessation of smallpox vaccination, which provided some cross-protection against monkeypox, leading to increased human-to-human transmission. The appearance of outbreaks beyond Africa highlights the global relevance of the disease. Increased surveillance and detection of monkeypox cases are essential tools for understanding the continuously changing epidemiology of this resurging disease.

Human Monkey Pox Virus Infection in Plateau State, North Central Nigeria: A Report of Two Cases

Background: Human Monkey Pox Virus (HMPV) infection is a zoonotic infection that is endemic in the Congo basin and West Africa. Its similarity to smallpox infection, increased susceptibility infection in human populations, lack of a definitive therapy and its potential for use as a bioterrorism tool underscores its public health importance.
Objective: To describe the characteristics of HMPV infection in Plateau State, North Central Nigeria.
Methods: This was a case study of HMPV infection occurring in two Nigerian adults, seen in 2018, at Bingham University Teaching Hospital in Jos, Plateau State, Nigeria. The cases involved two siblings, and these were the first reported cases in Plateau State of Nigeria, which has an estimated population of 3.5 million persons. The diagnosis was based on a combination of clinical features and positive PCR tests on samples from the skin lesions and blood.
Results: The first case, a 20-year-old male, presented with a one week history of fever, headache, pain on swallowing and micturition, and generalised skin lesions. The second case is a 20 year old step brother of the first case, and the primary care provider to first case when he took ill. He also presented with a one-week history of fever, headache, pain on swallowing, and skin lesions which were less intense than in the first case. PCR assays of samples from the skin lesions and blood were positive in both cases. The other comorbidity in both cases was pharyngotonsillitis. Blood, throat, stool, and urine cultures for suspected sepsis and urinary tract infection were all negative. Both cases were admitted and discharged after receiving a course of antibiotics, antihistamine, Non-Steroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drugs, and multivitamins. Universal precautions were observed.
Conclusion: HMPV infection in our environment underscores the need to strengthen preventive health strategies against this infection.
Contexte: L’infection par le virus de la variole humaine du singe (VMPS) est une zoonose endémique dans le bassin du Congo et en Afrique de l’Ouest. Sa similitude de l’infection variole augmenté l’infection susceptibilité dans les populations humaines, l’absence d’une thérapie définitive et son potentiel d’utilisation comme outil de bioterrorisme souligne son importance pour la santé publique.
Objectif: Décrire les caractéristiques de l’infection par le HMPV dans l’État du Plateau, dans le centre-nord du Nigeria.
Méthodes: Il s’agit d’une étude de cas d’une infection à HMPV survenue chez deux adultes nigérians vus en 2018 à l’hôpital universitaire Bingham de Jos Teaching Hospital à Jos, dans l’État du Plateau, au Nigeria. Les cas impliquaient deux frères et sœurs, et il s’agissait des premiers cas signalés dans l’État du Plateau du Nigeria, dont la population est estimée à 3,5 millions de personnes. Le diagnostic était basé sur une combinaison de caractéristiques cliniques et de tests PCR positifs sur des échantillons provenant des lésions cutanées et du sang.
Résultats: Le premier cas, un homme de 20 ans, s’est présenté avec un historique d’une semaine de fièvre, de maux de tête et de douleurs, de douleur à la déglutition et à la miction, et de lésions cutanées généralisées. Le deuxième cas est un demi-frère de 20 ans du premier cas, et le principal et le fournisseur de soins primaires du premier cas lorsqu’il est tombé malade. Il a également présenté une semaine de fièvre, de maux de tête, de douleur à la déglutition et des lésions cutanées qui étaient moins intenses que dans le premier cas.
L’ analyse PCR des échantillons de lésions cutanées et de sang étaient positifs dans les deux cas. L’’autre comorbidité dans les deux cas était pharyngotonsillite. Les cultures de sang, de la gorge, des selles et de l’urine pour une suspicion de septicémie et d’infection des voies urinaires étaient toutes négatives. Les deux cas ont été admis et ont quitté l’hôpital après avoir reçu une série d’antibiotiques, d’antihistaminiques et de médicaments, d’antibiotiques, d’antihistaminiques, d’anti-inflammatoires non stéroïdiens et des multivitamines. Les précautions universelles ont été observées.
Conclusion: L’infection par le HMPV dans notre environnement souligne la nécessité de renforcer les stratégies sanitaires préventives contre cette infection.

Transmission dynamics of Monkeypox virus: a mathematical modelling approach

Monkeypox (MPX), similar to both smallpox and cowpox, is caused by the monkeypox virus (MPXV). It occurs mostly in remote Central and West African communities, close to tropical rain forests. It is caused by the monkeypox virus in the Poxviridae family, which belongs to the genus Orthopoxvirus. We develop and analyse a deterministic mathematical model for the monkeypox virus.

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  • Both local and global asymptotic stability conditions for disease-free and endemic equilibria are determined. It is shown that the model undergo backward bifurcation, where the locally stable disease-free equilibrium co-exists with an endemic equilibrium.
  • Furthermore, we determine conditions under which the disease-free equilibrium of the model is globally asymptotically stable. Finally, numerical simulations to demonstrate our findings and brief discussions are provided.
  • The findings indicate that isolation of infected individuals in the human population helps to reduce disease transmission.

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